Why BJP shied away from fielding Lok Sabha candidates in 'Naya Kashmir'

Yet, despite all the bravado, the saffron party has not fielded candidates for the three parliamentary constituencies in the Kashmir Valley. It is also having to contend with alleged restlessness and dissension within its ranks in the Ladakh region over party tickets.

Even if the BJP scripts victory in the Jammu province — Udhampur and Jammu parliamentary seats — retaining its core Hindu voter base, it is unlikely to succeed in capturing the predominant Muslim voter base in Kashmir.

Stiff contest

If the ground reports are any indication, the BJP is facing stiff competition from the Congress-led INDIA bloc in both the parliamentary seats in the Jammu region as well.

Separately, in yet another upset of sorts, the BJP was forced to drop its outspoken sitting MP Jamyang Tsering Namgyal in Ladakh as its candidate for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Instead, the party has fielded Tashi Gyalson.

A political pundit based in Leh told The Federal, “The BJP is facing unprecedented discontent within its ranks in Leh over the nomination of Gyalson as the party candidate for the parliamentary constituency in place of Namgyal.”

So, why is BJP not participating directly in this Lok Sabha elections on Kashmir’s electoral turf? And, why does it seem to be lending overt and covert support to regional political parties that it describes as “patriotic”?

BJP’s argument

Ravinder Raina, the BJP's J&K unit chief, defended the party’s decision not to field its candidates for the Anantnag-Rajouri (south Kashmir), Srinagar (central Kashmir) and Baramulla (north Kashmir) Lok Sabha constituencies. According to Raina, “sometimes some decisions are made to achieve a bigger objective”.

Raina, however, added that his party is backing “patriotic” parties in these three parliamentary segments.

Although he did not offer any names, it was clear he was alluding to the three smaller regional parties — the People’s Conference (PC), the Apni Party (AP) and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP )— headed by Sajad Lone, Altaf Bukhari and Ghulam Nabi Azad, respectively. Except for the PC, it is the first electoral contest for the other two parties headed by Bukhari and Azad.

New BJP ‘proxies’

According to J&K’s former Chief Minister and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti, the BJP “left no stone unturned in the last five years to break the PDP to create the Apni Party”.

Most senior leaders of the Apni Party are PDP dissenters such as Rafi Mir and Ashraf Mir or those sacked by the PDP like the party chairperson Altaf Bukhari himself. Even the Azad-led DPAP is largely perceived as the BJP’s ‘proxy’ in J&K.

While the BJP in its anti-dynastic political narrative has consistently targeted both the National Conference (NC) and the PDP, it skips mentioning Sajad Lone. He too is the son of a politician, the late Khawaja Abdul Gani Lone.

Omar Abdullah's dare

No wonder then, the BJP’s decision not to field candidates in Kashmir gives weight to the argument put forth by the NC’s vice-president and J&K’s former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah that the parties headed by Lone, Bukhari and Azad are the BJP's ‘proxies’ or ‘B’ and ‘C’ teams.

Earlier, in a press conference, Omar dared the BJP with these words: “If you have done so much (for Kashmir), then please field BJP candidates on these three seats. If they do not lose their security deposits, then I will quit politics.”

What Junior Abdullah meant was that the BJP candidates would lose the amount deposited with the Election Commission, in case the party fielded its candidates in Kashmir, as they wouldn't be in a position to garner even one-sixth of the total votes polled in all three Lok Sabha seats.

He further asked: “If what PM Narendra Modi is saying is correct (about the rise in employment and better security and development in Jammu and Kashmir after August 2019) then why are the BJP’s candidates not in the field? Why is the BJP not contesting South, Central and North Kashmir?”

How the 'lotus' fares in Kashmir

So, what is the BJP’s electoral arithmetic? And its Kashmir plan?

On Kashmir’s fertile soil, the saffron crop grows in south Kashmir’s Pampore area. In the famed lakes (Dal, Anchar and Wullar) of the valley, the lotus stem is the fastest-growing vegetation. However, the region’s political landscape is ostensibly hostile to the saffron party and its Lotus symbol.

The BJP, it seems, has no cadre or support base in the Kashmir Valley. In the 2014 Assembly elections, the party drew a blank from Kashmir and Ladakh regions, while winning all 25 seats from the Jammu region.

What data suggests

In terms of electoral arithmetic, the BJP is a non-entity in Kashmir. If one carefully examines the 2019 election data in J&K, one comes to a safe conclusion that the BJP candidates would have lost their security deposits had they chosen to be in the fray in 2024.

In north Kashmir’s Baramulla Lok Sabha seat, a total of 4,55,550 votes were polled in 2019, of which the then BJP candidate M Maqbool War got a paltry 7,894 votes. To not lose the security deposit, the BJP candidate was required to get about 76,000 votes. At the time, Mohammad Akbar Lone of the NC won the seat after securing 1,33,426 votes.

In the Srinagar parliamentary constituency, 1,84,475 votes were cast with only 14 per cent voter turnout in 2019. The BJP’s candidate Sheikh Khalid Jehangir obtained a meagre 4,631 votes. To obtain one-sixth of the votes, the BJP needed at least 30,745 votes in its kitty. It didn’t happen. Farooq Abdullah, the NC patron, won the seat by receiving 1,06,750 votes.

Fear of embarrassment

Amid a low voter turnout of less than 9 per cent in south Kashmir in 2019, the BJP’s Sofi Yousuf got 10,225 votes. Justice (retired) Hasnain Masoodi of the NC won the seat by getting 40,180 seats, while Congress leader Ghulam Ahmad Mir obtained the second position with 33,504 votes. The PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti took the third spot with 30,524 votes. Usually, this constituency is won by a candidate after securing nearly two lakh votes.

The BJP understands that if it fields candidates on the 3 three Kashmir-based seats, it may be left embarrassed. The expected defeats by massive margins would have punctured its Naya Kashmir narrative balloon that the BJP has been broadcasting since August 2019.

BJP's Plan B

That’s perhaps why the BJP is relying on its plan B. Earlier,The Federal accurately predicted why a vote-split agenda may drive the BJP to ally with Lone and Bukhari. On April 6, BJP general secretary Tarun Chug met both at Bukhari’s Srinagar residence, lending credence to speculations that these parties might forge a strategic electoral partnership on three seats in Kashmir.

The BJP aims to put a stamp of approval over the strategic electoral partnership among Lone, Bukhari and Azad so that there is the consolidation of votes cast in favour of these parties in all three parliamentary constituencies against the two major regional forces — the NC and the PDP.

In a press conference in Srinagar, Lone made a passionate request to Bukhari to support the PC in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency, promising the quid pro quo in the case of the Srinagar parliamentary seat. Almost immediately, Bukhari reciprocated during a press conference at his party office in Srinagar on April 23 to assure Lone of his support.

“I am pleased to announce that we will be supporting Mr. Lone in north Kashmir,” the Apni Party chief announced.

Not a cakewalk for BJP

Analysts argue that while the BJP may appear on the backfoot in Kashmir and Ladakh, it has succeeded in sowing seeds of division among the electorate in Kashmir through gerrymandering, through new political groups, and by playing the Shia-Sunni and Gujjar-Bakerwal cards.

For instance, the analysts say, even the NC had to field Agha Ruhullah Mehdi, a popular Shia leader, on the Srinagar seat, and Mian Altaf, a prominent Gujjar leader, on the Anantnag-Rajouri seat. The importance of Kashmir as a political centre is being challenged in multiple ways with less and less Sunni Muslim participation in the electoral battle, they add.

Electorally speaking, the situation is not conducive for the BJP in Kashmir. Even seats like Udhampur and Jammu won’t be a cakewalk for the saffron party. Therefore, taking a risk to field its candidates in Kashmir’s three Lok Sabha segments would have been no less than a political suicide for the BJP. Therefore, the party made a pragmatic choice to offer support to Lone, Bukhari and Azad.

Srinagar's Clock Tower

As far as the political narrative is concerned, the BJP witnessed how the PDP’s Waheed Parra, for instance, reclaimed the famed Ghanta Ghar (clock tower) with his party’s green flags amid passionate slogans. It also saw how the huge caravan that accompanied NC leader Agha Ruhullah Mehdi on his way to filing his nomination.

The Lieutenant General Manoj Sinha-led administration in J&K has been using Srinagar’s historic Clock Tower space for the BJP narrative during the last few years.

“Waheed Parra’s supporters gathering at Srinagar Ghanta Ghar in large numbers, waving the party’s green flag amid passionate slogans was very symbolic. It was akin to reclaiming Lal Chowk after five long years,” said a political analyst pleading anonymity. Similarly, seeing a sea of red flags in support of Ruhullah Mehdi would have given the BJP a reality check on Kashmir’s political turf, the analyst added.

Opposition voices

According to J&K Congress chief Vikar Rasool, the BJP is “non-existent” and “weak” in Kashmir. Rasool sounded confident that the Congress will win both seats in the Jammu region (Udhampur and Jammu) and the Congress-led INDIA bloc will win all three parliament seats in the valley.

He claimed that the bloc would protect Jammu and Kashmir’s culture, identity, land, and jobs, and also restore statehood.

Tanvir Sadiq, the NC’s chief spokesperson and in-charge communications, also seemed optimistic that J&K voters will come out to vote in large numbers to send a strong message to the BJP. According to Sadiq, it is the first opportunity for people to come out and vote after the 2014 Assembly elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

“If the people believe that what happened on 5 August 2019 was illegal, undemocratic and unconstitutional, they will come out in big numbers to express their sentiment through their vote,” he told The Federal.

Sadiq argued that the PC, AP and DPAP are “not even hiding their secret alliance” with the BJP. “How can it be a secret? Good for us that they are not in a formidable position and are being summoned to New Delhi to fight us collectively.”